Academy Sports + Outdoors Inc. has runway growth into next year.

Jefferies’ hardlines analyst Jonathan Matuszewski reiterated his “buy” rating on shares of the outdoor retailer and said he remained upbeat about a number of factors including the health of its Nike relationship and momentum in e-commerce. He also believes that investor perception that Academy is a “dollar store Dick’s [Sporting Goods]” is misplaced. In fact, a number of factoids, including the retailer’s elevated merchandising efforts, indicate otherwise.

“Nike continues to view Academy among their key distribution retail partners with the chain as an ‘entrypint to sport’ for young, active families in underserved markets,” the analyst said. An additional plus is that Academy has changed its merchandise mix over the years, with better and best at 40 percent of the assortment versus less than 20 percent six or seven years ago. One example is that the retailer now carries six Vomero styles across men’s and womens’, with price points over $160. Academy has been growing its core Nike mix this year and is set for a door expansion of the Jordan brand in 2026.

Matuszewski said that AURs (average unit retail) will sequentially rise in the months ahead, into the third quarter and more into the fourth, as the industry pricing rises to combat tariffs and Academy’s “objective to preserve” gross margin. “We like the targeted approach Academy has been taking, exemplified by flattish pricing during key events for key categories [such as youth sports during back-to-school],” the analyst said.

Matuszewski met recently with Academy’s executive vice president and chief financial officer Carl Ford and vice president of investor relations Dan Aldridge. Another plus that has been noted by Academy’s management on past earnings calls is the growth of the trade-down customer.

The Jefferies analyst noted that “accelerating consumer trade-down” benefit the outdoor retailer as “young active families seek to stretch their budgets further.” In a deep dive on Academy’s customer file by trip frequency and average basket, Matuszewski forecasts that the top 10 percent of Academy spenders are poised to grow at an outsized rate. His projection is a 3 percent compound annual growth rate estimated through 2028.

“This is needle-moving, as we estimate Academy’s top 10 percent of customers spend $700 annually, or 4.7 x the average customer,” Matuszewski said.

In the management meeting, the analyst said that the retailer is “bullish” on digital. Recent outsized growth in digital was driven by introducing technology other retailers have been using for years, such as software to automate the speed of stock-keeping units, AI models to show texture of apparel and improved search parameters, among other improvements.

The analyst is also predicting e-commerce to grow 300-plus basis points over time, driving incremental sales, and for private label merchandise to rise at the same estimated 300-plus rate, which will drive incremental sales and higher gross margins. “Momentum with existing suppliers should create a flywheel and attract high-profile, high-growth brands in sporting goods,” he noted.