For all of U.S. President Donald Trump’s bilateral trade deals, the only guarantee so far is that the devil is in the details.

On Wednesday, Trump disclosed on Truth Social that the U.S. had in place the parameters for a new bilateral trade deal with Vietnam for a 20 percent tariff on imports to the U.S. and a 40 percent duty on transshipped goods.

There’s current debate over what that 20 percent means. Is it 20 percent or 20 percent tacked onto existing duties?

“Our take is that the 20 percent tariff on Vietnam goods will remain on top of the duties already placed on footwear and apparel,” wrote TD Cowen analyst John Kernan in a note on Thursday.

Fashion and footwear firms are now paying a reduced rate of 10 percent through July 9, down from the 46 percent initially imposed in Vietnam when Trump first spoke about reciprocal tariffs on April 2. But what happens on July 10? Do the tariffs go back up temporarily to 46 percent until there’s an official trade agreement? Or do they stay at 10 percent temporarily as the U.S. and Vietnam finalize the terms of their agreement? What happens with Vietnamese tariffs post July 9 will likely set the framework for any other trade agreement parameters that are negotiated before the July 9 deadline.

Then there’s China. In another twist in Trump’s trade war, the U.S. cut tariffs on Chinese imports to 30 percent from 145 percent in May for 90 days so negotiations can take place through Aug. 12. That would take the total rate to 55 percent, including stack-ons from existing duties.

The wrinkle here is that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration “set the table” for future tariff negotiations following a deescalation of U.S.-China tensions after the two agreed to a rare earth minerals trade deal. But Chinese representatives have emphasized that the country would oppose attempts by the U.S. to strike trade deals that would be contrary to China’s interests. And Trump picked up that gauntlet when he said the Vietnam trade deal would include a 40 percent transshipping levy.

China is both Vietnam’s largest trading partner and its largest supplier of production inputs. And some Chinese manufacturers are said to have circumvented China tariffs by shipping first to Vietnam before the goods travel to their final destination in the U.S. The transshipping levy targets trade between China and Vietnam.

And there are even questions over thresholds, such as regional value content rules. Twenty-five percent of shoe manufacturing is done in Vietnam, which has become the go-to producer for athletic performance shoes, and much of the components — the production inputs — are sourced from China. One unanswered question centers on how much Chinese materials can be included in a pair of shoes for the U.S. and still come under the new 40 percent rate.

Moreover, the U.S. is in bilateral trade talks with India, Indonesia and Cambodia. All three of the Southeast Asian nations have picked up some of the footwear production that moved out of China.

TD Cowen’s Kernan believes that as Vietnam’s rate moves to 20 percent, the rest of Southeast Asia will likely see rates higher than 10 percent. All global rates are currently at 10 percent due to the temporary pause through July 9, with the exception of China.

“We expect the rest of Southeast Asia tariff rates at 20 percent or higher,” Kernan predicted. He said that 20 percent rate is likely “mitigatable” under certain conditions, such as a 5 percent price increase when goods hit the store shelves and manufacturers absorbing about 10 percent of the additional cost.

Companies are digesting potential impacts from tariffs as more information becomes available. Given the lack of tariff certainty when shoe firms posted first quarter results over the last six weeks or so, most of them were estimating a 10 percent tariff rate for the remainder of 2025. That thinking now has to shift.

A spokeswoman for Adidas, when asked about the impact of the U.S.-Vietnam trade deal on its business, said the company will “provide our next business update” on July 30, when the firm reports on second quarter earnings. Other firms will also likely provide commentary on the situation during their earnings releases.

“We expect companies to discuss pricing and mitigation but also the now-higher tariff rates on Vietnam and potentially the rest of Southeast Asia,” Kernan said of the forthcoming second quarter earnings reports. “Simply put, assuming a 10 percent tariff rate in guidance will need to be adjusted higher.”